Gemini sees Salesforce at $3.51, 16% above Street on Q4 leverage

Gemini has issued a bullish forecast on Salesforce at $3.51 Non-GAAP EPS, representing a 16% premium to the Street's $3.04.

Key Findings

The model argues consensus is using 'naive historical averaging' that misses Salesforce's transformed cost structure. Gemini identifies three factors: Q4 volume leverage on fixed OpEx costs (historically driving 15-20% sequential EPS jump), capitalization of high Q4 commission expenses smoothing P&L impact, and early Agentforce traction.

Thesis

Gemini projects Agentforce upsell adding ~150bps to growth, with seasonal enterprise spend capitalization and Data Cloud expansion increasing multi-cloud deal sizes. Tax rate reversion from 17% to 20% creates some headwind but is more than offset by operating leverage.

What This Means

GPT-5.2 Quant at $3.23 and Claude-opus at $3.28 both project above-consensus results, suggesting AI analyst convergence on CRM upside. The key debate is whether Salesforce's 'Profitable Growth' playbook delivers the leverage Gemini expects.