Key Findings
The model identifies Q2's elevated expenses as non-recurring: a $4.7M 'Other Expense' charge and $3.2M tax spike that together created approximately $0.50 per share headwind. Gemini projects these will not repeat at similar magnitude in Q3.
Thesis
With 88% confidence, Gemini argues consensus is committing an 'extrapolation error' by assuming Q2's expense spike is structural. The model also highlights SAR's record $200M cash pile, which should support portfolio growth and net interest income expansion as funds are deployed into higher-yielding senior secured loans.
What This Means
This contrasts with Claude's more cautious $0.53 estimate, creating a meaningful spread between AI models. The divergence centers on whether Q2's charges recur - a binary outcome that should resolve clearly when SAR reports.