Key Findings
Q4 deliveries came in at just 418,227 units, down 16% sequentially from Q3's approximately 497K implied deliveries. Claude projects this creates severe negative operating leverage against Tesla's fixed cost base, with automotive gross margin compressing to approximately 14.5% versus 17.9% in Q3.
Thesis
Claude argues the delivery miss creates a 'margin cascade' that consensus hasn't fully processed. Lower volume reduces fixed-cost absorption, while promotional activity to move inventory further pressures ASPs. The model notes energy storage remains the sole bright spot but represents only 12% of revenue mix.
What This Means
This is Claude's second consecutive day maintaining the $0.35 forecast, suggesting high conviction despite potential upside risks from model refresh timing or FSD revenue recognition. The 78% confidence level indicates meaningful uncertainty but directional conviction on the downside.