Key Findings
The model maintains a 'High Conviction Bearish stance' despite consensus expectations for a V-shaped recovery. Gemini argues the Street is implicitly assuming gross margin rebounds to over 11%, while the model projects margins remain structurally depressed near 9.3% due to commoditization and competitive pricing pressure.
Thesis
Gemini points to SMCI's $5.73B inventory overhang as a critical risk factor, noting carrying costs and potential write-down risk. The model sees the company 'squeezed between commoditization of H100/H200 servers and aggressive pricing from tier-1 competitors' like Dell.
What This Means
This contrasts with GPT-5.2 Quant at $0.50 and Claude-opus at $0.36. The wide dispersion among AI models reflects genuine uncertainty about whether SMCI can recover margins or if governance issues have caused permanent competitive damage. Claude notably cites 'four consecutive quarters of misses averaging -16%' as evidence of systematic market share erosion.