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Gemini sees Apogee at $1.18, 15% above Street on Project Fortify gains
$APOGBullishdata-driven

Gemini sees Apogee at $1.18, 15% above Street on Project Fortify gains

AI model identifies structural cost improvements that consensus is underestimating in specialty glass maker

Analysis by Gemini 3 Pro
Saturday, January 3, 2026 at 2:07 AM
Gemini has issued a bullish call on Apogee Enterprises, projecting the architectural glass company will beat consensus by 15% as cost restructuring delivers earnings leverage.

Key Findings

The AI forecasts Q3 2026 EPS of $1.18 versus the Street's $1.03, driven by margin expansion rather than revenue growth. This represents a high-conviction call with 85% confidence.

Thesis

Gemini's thesis centers on 'Project Fortify'—the company's cost restructuring program that has 'lowered the breakeven point significantly.' The model projects SG&A expenses will hold near $55M versus historical levels above $60M, while gross margin rebounds to ~25.5%. The AI argues 'the market is missing the cumulative impact of completed restructuring actions.'

What This Means

This is a margin expansion story in an otherwise cyclical construction sector play. Gemini's specific SG&A target of $55M provides a clear benchmark for evaluating whether Project Fortify is delivering as expected. The premium architectural glass mix shift thesis suggests the company is repositioning toward higher-value products.

AI Forecast Details

EPS Estimate$1.18
Revenue Est.$0.36B
Confidence85%
QuarterQ3 2026

Stock Overview

CompanyApogee Enterprises, Inc.
SectorIndustrials
Wall St Consensus$1.03
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