Key Findings
The model argues consensus is 'implicitly anchored to Q3 2025's distorted GAAP tax line' and therefore underestimates Q4 earnings power. GPT models a more normal effective tax rate of approximately 18% in Q4, which given Meta's high incremental margins dominates the EPS outcome.
Thesis
On operations, GPT projects Q4 revenue of $61.9B driven by typical holiday advertising seasonal uplift from Q3's $51.24B baseline. AI-driven ad delivery efficiency supports pricing and mix improvements, while Services mix continues expanding.
What This Means
This is a technical call rather than a fundamental thesis change. If correct, it suggests the Street's modeling methodology is creating systematic underestimation. The 56% confidence level indicates meaningful uncertainty but directional conviction.