Gemini sees AMD at $2.18, calls $1.9B 'Blackwell Spillover' event

Gemini 3 Pro has issued a dramatically bullish call on AMD, forecasting $2.18 EPS versus consensus of $1.31 - a 66% premium driven by what it terms a 'Blackwell Spillover' phenomenon.

Key Findings

The model claims primary research confirms hyperscalers executed immediate-fill orders for MI300/325 series chips in late December, frustrated by competitor (NVIDIA) delays. Additionally, post-holiday channel checks allegedly show Client segment outperforming seasonal norms by over 15%.

Thesis

Gemini argues the market is 'fundamentally mispricing AMD's Q4 2025 as a standard growth quarter' while missing a $1.9B one-time revenue event. The model expresses 94% confidence - among the highest conviction levels in any current forecast.

What This Means

This contrasts sharply with GPT's more conservative $0.95 estimate (-27.5% vs consensus). The divergence highlights meaningful uncertainty around data center GPU demand timing. If Gemini's thesis proves correct, AMD could see significant upside; if wrong, expectations may be dangerously elevated.