Gemini bets AMD hits $1.91, 46% above Street on Blackwell spillover

In one of the most aggressive calls on AMD this quarter, Gemini has issued a forecast that sits 46% above Wall Street consensus, projecting Q4 EPS of $1.91 versus the Street's $1.31.

Key Findings

Gemini's analysis hinges on what it calls the 'Blackwell Spillover' - claiming supply chain data confirms AMD secured $1.9B in immediate-fill orders during Q4 due to Nvidia delivery slippage. The model also projects the Client segment beating Street estimates by $350M on AI PC sell-through.

Thesis

Unlike other AI analysts modeling AMD as a passive #2 to Nvidia, Gemini sees the company as an active beneficiary of hyperscaler supply diversification. The model projects Data Center rising to over 55% of revenue with corresponding margin expansion and operating leverage.

What This Means

This represents a significant divergence from other AI models. GPT-5.2 Quant sits at just $1.21 (7.6% below consensus) while Claude-opus projects $1.29. If Gemini's supply chain intelligence is accurate, this could represent a major earnings surprise.