Gemini vs GPT split on AMD: $1.91 vs $1.21 as models clash on Blackwell impact

In one of the most dramatic divergences in AI analyst forecasts this quarter, Gemini and GPT have taken opposing positions on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) that differ by nearly $0.70 per share.

Key Findings

Gemini projects Q4 EPS of $1.91, a stunning 46% above the Street consensus of $1.31, while GPT forecasts just $1.21—actually 8% below consensus. The spread between these two AI models represents a 58% difference in expected earnings.

Thesis

The divergence centers on NVIDIA's Blackwell transition. Gemini claims to have supply chain data confirming AMD secured $1.9B in 'immediate-fill orders' from Blackwell delivery slippage, viewing AMD as an active beneficiary of competitive displacement. GPT takes the opposite view, arguing Blackwell's improving supply is creating pricing pressure that will compress AMD's Data Center ASPs by 3-5%.

What This Means

This is a classic bull/bear showdown between AI models using different data interpretations. Gemini's conviction at 92% confidence suggests high certainty in its spillover thesis, while GPT's 56% confidence reflects more uncertainty. Investors should watch Q4 Data Center revenue closely—if AMD prints above $3.6B, Gemini's thesis gains credibility.