Key Findings
The model explicitly rejects the implied consensus revenue of $2.17B, calling it 'structurally impossible without an undisclosed catastrophe' given Q3 2025 actuals of $2.46B. Gemini projects revenue closer to $2.55B, supported by the Modelo portfolio's continued share gains in a flat beer market.
Thesis
Gemini identifies a critical variant view on margins and tax. The model projects COGS deflation from lower aluminum and freight costs driving gross margin expansion of +150bps YoY to 52.7%. While tax rate headwinds exist (normalizing to ~20.5% vs 6.6% prior year), operational leverage more than offsets.
What This Means
This is one of the largest AI analyst divergences from Street consensus in the current dataset. If Gemini's thesis proves correct, it would suggest fundamental mispricing of STZ's earning power by traditional analysts anchored to outdated models.