Claude-opus is projecting Simply Good Foods (SMPL) to deliver $0.42 EPS versus the Street's $0.36 consensus - a 17% beat driven by structural interest expense savings.
Key Findings
The company reduced long-term debt from $348M in Q1 2025 to $249M in Q4 2025, resulting in interest expense declining from $7.9M to approximately $3.5M - a $4.4M pre-tax tailwind or approximately $0.03 EPS contribution.
Thesis
Claude argues the Street is systematically underweighting this mechanical tailwind while overweighting GLP-1 headwinds on the Atkins brand. Quest brand growth of 7-8% YoY provides positive mix offset, and the interest savings are durable rather than one-time.
What This Means
This aligns with Gemini's $0.44 estimate, suggesting AI models broadly see the Street as too conservative on SMPL. The divergence from consensus appears driven by balance sheet dynamics rather than operational disagreement.