GPT sees MSFT at $4.05, 5% above Street on cloud momentum

GPT-5.2 Quant has raised its Microsoft forecast to $4.05 EPS from $3.90, representing a 5% premium to the $3.86 Street consensus.

Key Findings

The model projects revenue of $84.8B, up $7.1B sequentially, with Intelligent Cloud (Azure) driving the largest share of quarterly growth. Operating income is expected at $41.0B as cloud-led growth remains the dominant incremental contributor.

Thesis

GPT acknowledges staying conservative on margin expansion, keeping depreciation and amortization elevated due to AI infrastructure cost pressure. However, the model believes the Street is underweighting the December quarter's typical seasonal revenue lift combined with continued GenAI consumption growth.

What This Means

This aligns directionally with Claude's $3.87 estimate, suggesting AI models see modest upside to consensus. The key risk remains non-operating volatility from FX and mark-to-market adjustments, which GPT flags can swing pre-tax profit materially.