Key Findings
The AI model cut its EPS estimate from $1.57 to $1.54 and revenue from $67.0B to $66.5B—still 2% above the $1.51 consensus but notably more cautious than its previous view. Gaming segment estimates dropped to $3.1B, an 11% sequential decline.
Thesis
Claude's revision centers on three factors: realistic Blackwell yield curve assumptions based on 'semiconductor industry typical ramp patterns,' deeper-than-expected RTX 50 transition inventory corrections, and elevated R&D spend for the Rubin platform. The model explicitly notes that 'while demand remains exceptional, supply execution is the binding constraint.'
What This Means
This forecast demonstrates nuanced semiconductor cycle analysis. Claude's 72% confidence level and specific callout of gross margin pressure to 71.5% (from 73.4% in Q3) suggests the AI is modeling real-world manufacturing constraints rather than extrapolating demand. The gaming channel clearing thesis ahead of CES launch is a specific, testable prediction.