Gemini flags Lindsay Corp at $1.00, 32% below Street on 'double air pocket'

Gemini has issued an aggressive bearish call on Lindsay Corporation, projecting $1.00 EPS versus the Street's $1.46 - a 32% discount.

Key Findings

The model identifies what it calls a 'double air pocket': first, the $80M MENA contract signed December 19 is a post-quarter event adding zero to Q1 revenue despite flattering sentiment; second, a 20% drop in pivot run-hours creates severe negative mix shift away from high-margin aftermarket revenue.

Thesis

Gemini argues the market is failing to account for the loss of high-margin storm urgency revenue that boosted Q1 2025. The negative mix shift toward lower-margin initial system sales, combined with variable cost deleverage on lower volumes, creates material downside.

What This Means

This represents one of the more contrarian AI forecasts, with Gemini explicitly warning investors not to be fooled by the recent contract announcement. The thesis hinges on understanding revenue recognition timing and margin mix dynamics that headline news may obscure.