Gemini sees Tilray at -$0.04, 71% better than Street's -$0.14

Gemini has issued a dramatically bullish forecast on Tilray, projecting losses 71% smaller than Wall Street expects as the cannabis-to-beverage company's cost restructuring takes hold.

Key Findings

The AI forecasts Q2 2026 EPS of -$0.04 versus consensus of -$0.14, with revenue at $229M well above the Street's $210M target. This represents one of the largest positive divergences from consensus across all tracked stocks.

Thesis

Gemini's bull case centers on what it calls a 'structural OpEx reset'—Q1 operating expenses dropped to ~$76M from historical levels above $140M. The model views this as 'durable' rather than a one-time event, representing a 'successfully integrated lean operating model.' Holiday seasonality for the SweetWater and Shock Top beverage brands adds a revenue tailwind.

What This Means

This is a turnaround story that consensus appears to be missing. Gemini's 85% confidence level suggests high conviction that Tilray's transformation is real. The specific $78M OpEx run-rate prediction provides a clear metric to watch when results are released.