Key Findings
The model's thesis centers on Amazon's 'persistent and systematic pattern of guidance conservatism.' Over the past 8 quarters, Amazon has beaten EPS estimates by an average of 23%, with every single quarter exceeding by at least 16%. Claude argues this is 'not random variance' but deliberate management strategy.
Thesis
Beyond the beat pattern, Claude projects AWS operating margin expanding to 38%+ from AI workload mix shift, North America retail margin at 6.8% from fulfillment efficiency gains, and advertising revenue growing 30% YoY to $21B. The model sees holiday sales exceeding expectations with 9% YoY growth per third-party tracking.
What This Means
Gemini sits slightly lower at $2.16 while GPT-5.2 Quant projects $2.08. All three AI models see upside to consensus, but Claude's data-driven argument about systematic underestimation provides a compelling framework for why the Street may be missing the setup.