Key Findings
The model projects automotive gross margin compressing to approximately 15% from Q3's already-weak 17.1%, driven by aggressive year-end promotional activity and intensifying China competition. Revenue is estimated at just $26.8B versus GPT's $30.15B projection.
Thesis
Claude argues the Street 'continues to underestimate' automotive gross margin pressure. The thesis centers on three compounding headwinds: year-end promotions to hit delivery targets, China price war intensification, and management's historical pattern of prioritizing volume over margin in Q4.
What This Means
This creates a notable AI analyst divergence - GPT-5.2 Quant sees $0.42 EPS (8.7% below consensus) while Claude goes further bearish at $0.38. Both models agree on margin compression, but Claude's more severe outlook suggests Tesla bulls may face disappointment if promotional intensity matches the model's expectations.