Key Findings
The AI model forecasts Q1 FY26 EPS of $2.68 versus Street consensus of $2.65, with revenue at $135.8B—notably below consensus of $138.25B. This creates an interesting divergence: below-consensus revenue but above-consensus EPS.
Thesis
GPT's thesis is that 'consensus appears to underwrite a cleaner, volume-led iPhone holiday rebound than is justified.' Instead, the model projects 'a mix-led holiday quarter: iPhone revenue up on Pro/ASP strength but not a blowout unit cycle, with Services providing the steadier incremental growth contribution.' The ~47% gross margin assumption reflects the favorable mix impact.
What This Means
This forecast represents a nuanced take on Apple's quarter—betting on profitability over top-line growth. GPT's 56% confidence reflects uncertainty around China demand and promotional intensity. The specific callout of Wearables/Home/Accessories remaining 'flattish' suggests limited upside from new product cycles.