Gemini sees RPM at $1.34, warns of consumer segment freeze

Gemini 3 Pro has issued a below-consensus call on RPM International, forecasting $1.34 EPS versus the Street's $1.42 - a 5.6% miss driven by consumer segment weakness.

Key Findings

The model projects Consumer Group revenue declining 2.5% YoY due to DIY destocking, citing recent Home Depot and RH data points as confirmation of a consumer discretionary freeze. The implied 13.7% EBIT margin in consensus estimates is described as 'too aggressive.'

Thesis

Gemini argues Wall Street is correctly identifying infrastructure tailwinds benefitting the Construction Products segment but underestimating the magnitude of consumer weakness. MAP 2025 efficiency gains drive gross margin expansion to 41.9%, but negative operating leverage in Consumer weighs on overall EBIT margins.

What This Means

This is a differentiated call based on segment-level analysis rather than headline aggregation. The 85% confidence level suggests high conviction in the consumer weakness thesis.