Key Findings
Claude forecasts Q2 FY26 EPS of $0.36, 25% below consensus of $0.48. Gemini is even more bearish at $0.23, projecting a 52% miss. Both models agree SMCI is in trouble, but diagnose the problem differently.
Thesis
Claude's bear case centers on 'permanent competitive damage' from the governance crisis, noting 'four consecutive quarters of misses averaging -16% is not random noise—it's systematic market share erosion.' The model flags the DOJ investigation and auditor transition as ongoing risks. Gemini's even darker view focuses on structural margin compression, arguing the Street's implicit assumption of gross margin rebounding to >11% is 'fundamentally wrong' with margins stuck near 9.3% due to commoditization.
What This Means
When two AI models independently arrive at bearish conclusions through different analytical paths, it strengthens the conviction signal. Claude (62% confidence) focuses on governance/competitive dynamics while Gemini (85% confidence) emphasizes margin mechanics. Both see the $5.73B inventory overhang as a warning sign.