Key Findings
The model projects AWS AI-driven growth at 25% YoY to $32.8B, advertising acceleration at 30% YoY to $21B driven by Prime Video ad tier traction, and operating margin expansion to 11.0% from AWS mix shift toward higher-margin AI services.
Thesis
Claude argues the Street continues to structurally underestimate three dynamics: AWS's AI acceleration representing a fundamental enterprise IT shift (not cyclical), advertising's continued TAM expansion into streaming, and North America retail margin improvement from fulfillment optimization.
What This Means
With 82% confidence, Claude maintains this is not a heroic call but rather pattern recognition on Amazon's consistent beat cadence. The $50B+ infrastructure commitment signals management conviction in sustained demand that analysts aren't fully crediting.