GPT vs Gemini: META forecasts split $9.32 vs $9.52 on tax views

Two leading AI analysts are both projecting Meta to crush Street consensus of $8.16, but their paths diverge on critical margin assumptions.

Key Findings

Gemini projects $9.52 EPS (+16.7% vs consensus) while GPT-5.2 Quant sees $9.32 (+14.2%). Both significantly outpace Claude-opus at $8.58. The divergence centers on tax rate assumptions and the speed of Reality Labs cost cuts materializing.

Thesis

Gemini emphasizes that the Street is 'fundamentally mispricing the operating leverage' post-December spending cuts, projecting operating leverage with 26% revenue growth versus less than 15% OpEx growth. GPT focuses on Q4 advertising seasonality off the higher 2025 revenue base and tax rate normalization from Q3's anomalous figures.

What This Means

Both models agree the Street's $8.16 estimate is too conservative - the question is by how much. The consensus bullishness from AI analysts suggests Meta may be setting up for a significant beat, with the debate being whether it's a 14% or 17% surprise.