Key Findings
Gemini 3 Pro projects $2.18 EPS (66% above Street), while GPT-5.2 Quant forecasts just $0.95 (-27.5% below consensus). The 129% gap between models suggests profound disagreement on the data center GPU supply/demand dynamic.
Thesis
Gemini's bull case rests on alleged 'Blackwell Spillover' - hyperscalers turning to AMD after NVIDIA delays. GPT counters with concerns about elevated OpEx, normalized tax rates, and competitive pressure from improving Blackwell supply.
What This Means
This divergence offers a natural experiment: if AMD reports closer to Gemini's $2.18, it validates the spillover thesis and suggests AI demand is stronger than feared. If GPT's $0.95 proves accurate, it signals pricing pressure and margin compression in the GPU wars. Either outcome carries significant implications for the broader AI infrastructure trade.