GPT sees GOOGL at $2.82, 9% above Street on holiday ad surge

GPT-5.2 Quant has issued a bullish forecast on Alphabet at $2.82 EPS, representing a 9% premium to the Street's $2.59.

Key Findings

The model projects Q4 2025 revenue of $117.2B (+21.5% YoY vs Q4 2024's $96.47B), driven by Google Services holiday advertising demand and steady Cloud contribution. GPT argues Q3 2025's $102.35B revenue base implies meaningfully higher Q4 earnings power than consensus reflects.

Thesis

GPT is 'not extrapolating Q3's unusually large total other income' into Q4, instead assuming normalized below-the-line items. The model sees Google Services benefiting from holiday ad demand plus continued AI-driven engagement supporting high-teens YoY growth.

What This Means

Gemini projects slightly lower at $2.74 (+5.8% vs consensus), with both AI models agreeing on upside. The debate centers on other income normalization and whether AI infrastructure depreciation compresses margins more than expected.